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Wednesday Mar 29th, 2017  

 Super Bowl Betting: San Francisco a Tepid Favorite over Baltimore
posted 4 years ago

The Super Bowl Betting odds are out and Football handicappers are truly wondering which way to go when Baltimore battles San Francisco on February 3.Super Bowl XLVII Odds

The ATS line opened with San Francisco a -4.5 favorite. Money has flown onto the Ravens so that the Niners are now only a -3.5 point favorite. Harbaugh Bowl Odds That trend, money going to Baltimore, probably won't end any time soon, but it's doubtful that Super Bowl 2013 kicks off with the Ravens more than a +3 point dog.

2013 Super Bowl Expect some covering the closer we get to the actual game. Therefore, Baltimore could go all the way down to a +2.5 point dog, but that's where the San Francisco bettors will pounce, driving the line back up to Ravens -3. Big Baltimore gamblers, guys who put down mass amounts of dollars on the Ravens early, figure to cover some of their potential losses by taking San Francisco at -2.5 as well.

Right before kickoff, the line should be San Francisco -3.

Super Bowl 2013: Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49'ers

When: Feb. 3 at 6:30 pm ET


Super Bowl Against the Spread

Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110
San Francisco 49'ers -3.5 -110

Analysis: A full point move after only 2 to 3 days is a fantastic trend. Baltimore is smokin' in betting terms. In fact, 65% of Football gamblers are all over the Ravens at -4.5 and at -3.5. As I wrote above, I expect the line to finish at around Baltimore -3.

To me, Baltimore -3 makes the Ravens an overlay. I feel that Baltimore should be a +1 point favorite going into Super Bowl 2013 because of their experience at key positions, the key of the keys being quarterback, and their bend but don't break defense. Baltimore's D is tailor made to frustrate a dual threat QB like Colin Kaepernick.

On the flips side of that, San Francisco's secondary allowed Atlanta QB Matt Ryan to throw for 396 yards and 3 touchdowns. There is such a thing as a defense being overly aggressive in the NFL and the 49'ers' D has shown signs of doing exactly that. That's not a good thing when you face one of the better play action quarterbacks in the league in Joe Flacco.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3.5

Super Bowl Moneyline Betting

Baltimore Ravens +155
San Francisco 49'ers -175

Analysis: I'm obviously going with Baltimore here, but it's still important to make the case against the San Francisco 49'ers on the moneyline.

Can San Francisco beat Baltimore straight up on Feb. 3? Of course the Niners can. They're the best rushing team in the NFL, have a supremely talented player at quarterback, and have a tough, aggressive defense. But, San Francisco has some matchup problems in their secondary, which I write about above, and Kaepernick is essentially a rookie QB in the Super Bowl.

Those issues aside, the biggest problem with backing San Francisco on the moneyline is the fact that they're at -175. San Francisco is not that much better than Baltimore. You'd have to lay $175 in order to make $100 profit on the Niners. That's laying 75% above $100 in order to score $100. For Baltimore, you're getting 55% above your $100 investment. That's a 55% profit. Warren Buffet would slap you for betting on San Francisco on the moneyline.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens +155

Super Bowl Betting Total

Over 47
Under 47

Football Picks Analysis: The line has moved by a full point from a 48 Total to a 47 Total in only a few days. What's interesting about the line movement is that the consensus is almost even at this point on whether the Super Bowl will go over or under the total of 48.

My gut tells me that giving the Harbaugh Brothers two weeks to beat each other's offenses is just too much time. I see both Jim and John coming out with special plays on offense, but I also see Jim, in particular, trying to control the game with short runs.

Then again, an offensive genius like Baltimore coordinator Jim Caldwell could definitely set up a few Flacco passes that exploit the 49'ers secondary. I haven't made my final decision, but as of now, I'm going under the Total because both teams have great rushing attacks and two weeks is a lot of time for defenses to come up with game plans.

Sports Picks : Under 47

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