posted 9 years ago
The 10 Basic Rules for the Professional Investor
Rule #1 Never Bet It All
This rule is number 1 because it is probably the most violated rule. Plain and simple, when you place a wager you are taking a risk. This risk, however small, means that you could lose. And we have all seen even the most guaranteed bet lose at some time or another (see Buster Douglas V. Mike Tyson). Thus you should never bet your complete bankroll because to do so means that you are gambling – and we professionals are not gamblers, we are investors. Not betting your entire bankroll will afford you to lose every once and a while and still be poised to win it back.
Rule #2 Predictability is King
While this one seems obvious it is not very well understood by the average monkey. Therefore every wager you make needs to be analyzed for predictability using the predictability meter. The PM measures the importance index and works like this: You assign points to every wager based on 3 categories or factors to determine the predictability of the outcome of the event. By adding up the score you will know whether to get serious or not waste your time.
- Category A - scores 5 points for a (P) professional event (NFL, NBA, MLB etc.), 3 points for a collegiate event and 1 point for an amateur event (the Olympics, high school or non human sport like horses or dogs).
- Category B - scores for the (I) importance of the event. 5 points for a playoff game or higher. 3 points for a rivalry and 1 point for a meaningless beginning of a season or no chance of making the playoff type game.
- Category C - scores for any (I) inside information you might have. 5 points if you know something that few people know like you saw Artess the night before in a club at 4:00 in the morning. 3 points if that information is good but not great and 1 point if you have no idea about either team.
Add your score and do the following:
Score 10 – 15 bet that game!
Score 6-9 only if you must.
Score less than 6. Don’t even think about it.
Rule #3 You have now officially lost your hometown favorite.
Yet another rule that generally gets violated. Having grown up in Chicago I always want to bet the Cubs or Bears. Not any more. Being the nation’s third largest city it seems that everyone else in town want to bet the Bears and Cubs. I know it, they know it and the odds-makers know it. Strange thing is, everyone bets them anyway (see this is the leisure monkey shaping the Vegas line). Besides, when was the last time the Bears beat anybody by more than 7 points?
Rule #4 You wouldn’t drink and drive so don’t drink and bet.
And if you do drink and drive you’re and idiot. That aside, in order to make the best decisions your mind has to be clear. Nothing clouds an investor worse than alcohol. So if you are going to drink and watch the games, be sure to have plotted your wagers well in advance. Note however most of the best wagers occur with a 15 or 20 minute window so it is wise to save the celebrating until after the money is collected.
Rule #5 Set the lines before you see them.
The best way to tell if you understand where the monkeys are putting their money is to set the line before you see the actual line. In other words, take next Sunday’s lineup and pick what you think Vegas have set the line. Remember, this is not what you think but what you think Vegas thinks. Once you become proficient you will be able to tell what the opening game lines will be. More importantly you will later be able to set the halftime lines and exploit these like never before. I’ll explain this in more detail later in the book.
Rule #6 Get a Tivo type devise
I get no endorsements from these guys or any other DVR type company but you will need this to be able to see what the book makers see. You can probably tear through a whole Sunday of game in less than 3 hours. You will really need to see if a coach is a sitter or a blowout type. This is especially big I college sports since some schools tend to pour on the points and never look back.
Rule #7 There is no such thing as luck when betting on sports.
Ever hear the guy next to you say “Man they got so lucky when X caught the ball on the last play of the game”? Well here is a surprise, they should have won. There is a reason why Payton Manning can’t win the big game, The Cubs can’t win the pennant or why the Braves always make the playoffs
Get at least two if not three online accounts. If betting online is illegal in your state or country then I must qualify this comment in that I do not at all condone illegal activity. Now that that is out of the way, you need at least two or three reputable accounts because in the online world each book will set or change a line at different times. In some case you might even be able to arbitrage a line between two books. In other words you get paid regardless of the outcome. A prime example of this is in 2003 Sbgglobal.com had Arnold Schwarzenegger winning the California Governor’s race at +250 to +150 almost up to the night of the election while you could get his opponent on other web sites at Even money. Let’s see here, bet one side to get even money, bet Arnold and get +150. I hope you are now getting the picture behind what this book is trying to help you accomplish. As a side note, I heard that SBG only allowed up to $500 on Arnold for any single account. But the way I see it, when was the last time someone just gave you $500?
Take every bonus you can get. Just like when a casino in Vegas comps you for your play, you should take full advantage of any online deposit or matching bonus. These bonuses will help you move your odds in that it is really shifting a -120 line to more like even money or sometimes better. The rules behind the bonus usually work like this. The more you deposit the greater the bonus. So let’s say you deposit $1,000 into an online account. The online book will usually give you an additional 50% or $500 for betting purposes. Why do they do this? They know that you probably have a compulsive behavior that will either cause you to bet more than you usually intended and lose the bonus at the same rate of your original deposit or you will feel like it is found money and try your luck at their other online games like blackjack, slots or poker. The best way to treat this money is if it is really yours because it will be yours soon enough. Last I checked, most online books, in order to withdraw the bonus money you had to wager 3 times the original deposit. So in this example you have to have accumulated $3,000 in total wagers before they let you withdraw the bonus money.
“Discipline Monty, Discipline!” So said Joe Pesci to Rodney Dangerfield in classic top 10 gambler movie Easy Money. Discipline is what I say to you. All of the rules above don’t mean a thing if you do not disciple yourself to follow the rules. Online and in the brick and mortar casinos know that 95% of gamblers don’t have the discipline to take the money and run. They play the law of averages so you should be following the law of marginal betting as this book will show you. After all, never forget that Vegas tries to set the lines so that 50% win and 50% lose. Somebody has to win so why not you? If you can legitimately move your chances of winning from 50/50 to 60/40 (and not just by luck because in the long run the lucky streaks turn unlucky) then you should be able to clean up and earn a few extra bucks for that new boat, car or vacation house.